THE FARMER'S
DIGEST

Your weekly dose of sport, tips, headlines & a good yarn

Friday 25 April 2026 | Edition #005 | Brought to you by AgPages

Download PDF version · ~950 words · Est. 4 min read

MEME OF THE WEEK

See above — your weekly laugh before the serious stuff.

WEEKEND SPORT

AFL Round 7

The big one is the Anzac Day clash at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. Essendon v Collingwood never needs a storyline, but it has one anyway: the Pies haven't cracked 100 points in 15 straight games and the Bombers look sharper than they have in years. Geelong will be feeling confident after Jeremy Cameron kicked ten against the Dogs last week — his 750th career goal. The Cats host the Saints. Sam Darcy is gone for the season with an ACL, so tip the Dogs against Sydney at your peril on Thursday night.

NRL — ANZAC Round

The marquee match is Brisbane hosting the Sharks on Friday night at Suncorp. Cam McInnes returns for Cronulla off a long ACL recovery — the kind of comeback story the game needs. Penrith host Newcastle on Sunday at a heavy market price; at Penrith that still means nothing if they sleep in. Wests Tigers open Thursday at Leichhardt against Canberra. Benji has shaken his backline up and the Raiders have their own injury hits.

NRL tipping — Round 8 (ANZAC Round)

Goal is to maximise expected points across the round, not just pick winners. Odds from Stats Insider / Sportsbet; correct at publication — not financial advice.

Game	Tip	Odds	EP	Note
Tigers vs Raiders	Tigers	$1.50	1.11	Home at Leichhardt, Tigers in form
Cowboys vs Sharks	Sharks	$1.82	1.13	McInnes back — value tip
Broncos vs Bulldogs	Bulldogs	$1.62	0.97	Dogs fav on the road
Dragons vs Roosters	Roosters	$1.15	0.97	Dragons $5.50 upset watch
Warriors vs Dolphins	Warriors	$1.47	0.93	Wellington home
Storm vs Rabbitohs	Storm	$1.58	1.11	AAMI Park fortress
Knights vs Panthers	Panthers	$1.25	1.03	Near-certain fav
Sea Eagles vs Eels	Sea Eagles	$1.44	1.10	Brookvale edge, Eels depleted

Value tip of the round: Sharks at $1.82. Cam McInnes returning from a long ACL is worth more than the market is pricing — his presence lifts the whole side.

Upset watch: Dragons at $5.50 against the Roosters. The Roosters tip only returns 0.97 EP — if you need to make up ground, this is your lottery ticket.

Projected round EP (if all tips land): ~9.25. Odds: Stats Insider / Sportsbet. Not financial advice.

Super Rugby Pacific

Super Round lands in Christchurch at the brand-new One NZ Stadium — a good excuse to stay up late. The Chiefs grabbed top spot heading in and face the Fijian Drua on Sunday. Friday night is Crusaders v Waratahs, which historically delivers regardless of the ladder. Saturday is the Hurricanes v Brumbies ANZAC fixture; Tom Wright is back for the Brumbies. If you're picking one game, Chiefs v Drua has been trending as the upset pick.

PUNT OF THE WEEK

Feature race: VRC St Leger (2800m) · Flemington · Saturday 25 April 2026

The tip: Look for a genuine stayer from the Waller or Hayes/Dabernig stables. The long Flemington straight suits a horse that stays all day. Check the final field race morning before committing — see Racing.com or Betfair Hub for form.

Bonus: Royal Randwick has a full eight-race card on Anzac Day if you're in NSW.

Just a punt guide, not financial advice. AgPages is a farming marketplace, not a bookmaker.

THIS WEEK IN FARMING

Opinion

Dry Seeding Isn't a Bet. It's a Business Decision.

By Cameron, Co-founder | AgPages

Every year around this time, the same conversation happens in every grain-growing shed in the country. Do we wait for rain, or do we get the crop in the ground and back ourselves?

BOM has forecast below-median rainfall for much of eastern and south-west Australia through May to July. Soil moisture coming out of summer has been mixed. The east coast had a warm, dry autumn. Western Australia is sitting on better profile moisture than most. None of this is news. What matters is what you do with it.

The farmers who consistently make money in grain growing do one thing differently. They don't treat the seeding decision as a weather bet. They treat it as a cost-of-entry decision. The question isn't “will it rain in May?” The question is: what does it cost me to be wrong, and what does it cost me to miss?

With wheat prices under pressure from a big domestic harvest and tough export competition, the margin for error is tighter than it was two years ago. But canola is still holding reasonable value, particularly non-GM into Asia. The operators getting this right are mapping paddocks by moisture retention, tiering seed spend accordingly, and not treating every hectare the same.

The other thing worth watching is input costs. Urea supply is tightening. Incitec has pulled in extra volume from Indonesia to shore up supply, but the Persian Gulf pipeline is constrained. If you haven't locked in fertiliser, that's the more pressing call than the seeding date.

The good news is that Australia's agricultural sector goes into this season with strong export fundamentals. The US is buying Australian beef at record tonnage. Sorghum exports to China are up 76% year-on-year. There's demand out there. The job is to manage cost of production tightly enough to capture it. Back yourself with good paddock management and tight input discipline. The season will do what it does.

HEADLINES

Urea supply tightening ahead of seeding

Incitec has brought in an extra 250,000t of urea from PT Pupuk Indonesia to offset constrained supply from the Persian Gulf. If you haven't confirmed your nitrogen needs, this is the week to do it.

Source: Grain Central, 16 April 2026

Northern NSW facing a lean season

Dry conditions in northern NSW are combining with high input costs to make the current winter cropping season look difficult before it starts. Not all bad news for operators with good soil moisture profiles further south.

Source: Grain Central, 15 April 2026

National Reconstruction Fund opens to agribusinesses

$6.15 billion is now accessible to Australian businesses in critical supply chains, including agriculture. Worth a look if you're investing in infrastructure this year.

Source: Grain Central, 21 April 2026

WA 2026–27 crop shaping up

GIWA's early estimate points to a reduced wheat area but increased barley and canola plantings, driven by early general rain and grower response to nitrogen cost pressures.

Source: Grain Central

MARKET WRAP

Grain

Wheat prices remain under pressure from a large domestic harvest and tough global competition. Russia and the EU are both producing well. Barley is sideways to softer, though east coast supply is tightening as growers wind down old crop. Canola has pulled back slightly on a firmer AUD and softer offshore markets, but structural demand from Asia and potential return of Chinese buying in GM canola is a medium-term positive.

Source: NSW DPI Weekly Commodity Report, Grain Central

Livestock

Cattle markets started the year around 5% softer but are showing some recovery where rain has hit. ABARES forecasts the saleyard indicator to average around 775c/kg this financial year before easing next year. High-quality chilled beef programs into the US are holding firm. Crossbred feeders hovering around $5/kg lwt. Southern buyer interest in northern markets expected to strengthen through late April and May.

Source: Elders, StoneX, ABARES

Season

BOM outlook for May to July is for below-median rainfall across much of eastern and south-west Australia (60–80% chance). Above-average temperatures are very likely across most of the country. La Niña has ended. Models suggest a possible shift toward El Niño by late winter, though timing remains uncertain.

Source: BOM Climate Outlook, April 2026

One thing to watch

Urea availability and price into June. Persian Gulf supply constraints plus strong demand at seeding time could push nitrogen costs higher. Lock in what you can now.

From the AgPages paddock

With seeding season kicking off across most of the country, now is the time to line up machinery contractors — seeding, spraying, fertiliser spreading. Post a job on AgPages (about two minutes) and operators can quote you.

Post a Job — Takes 2 Minutes

The Farmer's Digest is published weekly by AgPages.