The Farmer's Digest
Your weekly dose of sport, tips, headlines & a good yarn
4 April 2026 · Edition #002 · Brought to you by AgPages
This Week's Joke
An Australian beef farmer rings his lawyer after hearing about the new EU trade deal.
"How much are we expecting to export?" the lawyer asks.
The farmer says: "Depends if I'm inside the quota, meet the grass-fed rules, make it through the 10-year phase-in, and if the French don't shut it down first."
The lawyer closes his file. "Come back in 2036."
Meme of the Week: I Can Finally Out Drive Tiger Woods
Weekend Sport
AFL: Round 4
It's a big Easter long weekend for the footy. Brisbane and Collingwood opened Thursday night at the Gabba. Good Friday brings a double header with North Melbourne vs Carlton and Adelaide vs Fremantle.
The headline act is Easter Monday at the MCG: Hawthorn vs Geelong. Geelong's country heartland turns up for this one every year and it tends to deliver. Clear your schedule.
NRL: Round 5
Panthers vs Storm is the match to watch. It's been that way for five years running and Round 5 in 2026 is no different. If you want to see where the competition ceiling is, those two clubs tend to show you. Also on the card: Rabbitohs vs Bulldogs, Dolphins vs Sea Eagles, Dragons vs Cowboys, and Newcastle vs Canberra.
Super Rugby Pacific: Round 8
Three games this Easter weekend. The Crusaders host the Fijian Drua on Friday night. The Drua have been one of the more entertaining teams in the competition and are worth watching if you have any interest in rugby. Chiefs take on the Waratahs also on Friday. Western Force face the Queensland Reds on Saturday. Brumbies, Blues and a few others are on the bye.
The Crusaders have been building steadily. The Drua bring chaos. Friday night could be genuinely good.
Punt of the Week
Feature Race: TJ Smith Stakes (G1) · Randwick · Saturday 4 April · 1200m · $3,000,000
The Tip: Tentyris. Mark Zahra in the saddle, barrier 1, $3 favourite. Three-year-old chasing history as the first of that age to win the TJ Smith since Trapeze Artist in 2018. Draws the rails, first trip outside Melbourne. Form says trust him.
Value Runner: Joliestar at $4-5. Two wins on the trot including the Canterbury Stakes (G1). If Tentyris drifts, she's the one to beat.
Also on the card: Australian Derby (G1, 2400m) — Green Spaces heads the market for the staying test.
Source: races.com.au, bets.com.au, justhorseracing.com.au · Just a tip. Not financial advice. AgPages is a farming marketplace, not a bookmaker and we got it wrong last week 😅
This Week in Farming
By Cameron, Co-founder | AgPages
The Season Is There to Be Taken
Easter weekend feels like a good time to zoom out.
If you've been following the ag news this week, you'd be forgiven for feeling like the sector is under siege. The EU trade deal landed with a thud. The US tariffs are biting. BOM is pointing at a dry autumn for most of the country. It's a lot of noise for one week.
But step back from the headlines and the bigger picture looks a lot more solid than the chatter suggests.
Australian agriculture is forecast to hit a record $101 billion in gross production value this year. The winter crop outlook for 2026 is broadly positive. And for all the frustration with the EU deal, Australian beef and grain are still in strong structural demand globally. We grow some of the cleanest, most trusted product in the world, and that matters more as food security becomes a real issue for importing countries.
I've noticed that the farmers who tend to come out of tough stretches in good shape are the ones who don't let the macro noise change their fundamentals. They plan well, book contractors early, lock in what they can while the market lets them. They treat headwinds as a planning problem, not a catastrophe.
The dry autumn signal is worth taking seriously. But Australian agriculture is built around variable conditions. Always has been. A challenging forecast doesn't change the fact that the underlying opportunity is as good as it's been in a long time for producers who are set up and ready to move.
It's Easter. Have a good break. Come back ready to get into it.
The season is there to be taken.
Headlines
EU Free Trade Deal: Farmers Are Not Happy
Australia's long-awaited free trade agreement with the EU has landed. Meat and Livestock Australia had one verdict: the worst FTA ever negotiated for the red meat industry. Farmers wanted a quota of at least 50,000 tonnes. They got 30,600, with grass-fed conditionality and a 10-year phase-in. The NFF said farmers will "pay the price for decades." European farmers are simultaneously trying to block the deal, so at least everyone's equally unimpressed.
Sources: Farm Weekly, Beef Central, North Queensland Register
Trump's Tariffs: Ten Percent and Counting
The 10% US tariff on Australian agricultural exports is in effect. Agriculture is one of the most exposed sectors, with $7.2 billion in annual ag exports to the US at stake. Beef and veal producers are looking at a potential $330 million impost. The government has flagged $50 million in direct support and $1 billion in zero-interest loans to help exporters find new markets.
Sources: Farm Weekly, SBS News, DFAT
Record Production Value — On Paper
ABARES is forecasting Australian agriculture to hit a record $101.4 billion in gross production value in 2025–26. It's a genuine milestone. The fine print is that it reflects a season already done, and input costs and trade headwinds are the forward-looking picture.
Source: ABARES, agriculture.gov.au
Cattle Prices: Soft and Well-Supplied
Cattle prices are running about 5% below where they started the year. Hot and dry conditions across the east coast have kept markets well-supplied as farmers move stock early. A stronger Australian dollar is clipping export returns at the same time. MLA expects slaughter to run high through 2026.
Sources: MLA, Mecardo, Elders
Market Wrap
Grain
ABARES broadly supportive for winter wheat and canola growers, with production forecast to improve over the next couple of years. Global grain trade is choppy with tariff disruptions running through commodity markets. China demand stays the biggest variable for Australian export grain.
Livestock
Cattle prices running about 5% soft from the year start. East coast markets well supplied. High slaughter rates expected to persist through mid-2026. Farmers holding stock for better prices may find that window opens in 2027–28 as supply tightens.
Season (BOM April–June)
Below average rainfall likely for most of Australia (60–80% chance) through June. La Niña is done. ENSO-neutral conditions are now driving the forecast. Exceptions: far north QLD and NT. Not the setup you'd want heading into autumn sowing.
One to watch
The AUD/USD. A strong Australian dollar clips export returns on beef and grain at the same time as tariff headwinds. Worth watching before any forward contracting decisions.
Sources: ABARES, MLA, BOM, Mecardo, Grain Central
From AgPages
April means it's time to think about seeding. With the BOM pointing at a tighter-than-average rainfall window for April through June, getting your winter crop in on time matters more than usual this year. The good seeding contractors book out fast once paddocks dry up after a break.
If you're looking for a seeding operator around Narrabri, Goondiwindi, Moree or the Liverpool Plains, post a job on AgPages before the rush.
Post a Job — Takes 2 Minutes
Related Articles
Australia hit $100 billion in ag production. With a dry autumn ahead and China beef tariffs biting mid-year, the real story is what comes next.
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Winter crop seeding starts in late April across NSW and QLD. Here's what to check before you book a contractor.