26th November 2025
Market Snapshot: 2025/26 Australian Wheat Harvest – Strong Yields, Tight Margins
Australia's 2025/26 wheat harvest is off to a solid but slightly stop-start start: roughly 30% of the national wheat crop is already off, with WA and the north leading, but receivals are behind last year because of intermittent rain.
On profitability, it's looking like good tonnes, thinner margins for many growers.
Harvest progress
- National winter crop is forecast around 62 Mt, the third-largest on record, with wheat about 33–34 Mt, well above the 10-yr average.
- WA is carrying the load again with a near-record crop; Qld and northern NSW are largely into wheat now, while Vic/SA/southern NSW are only just getting going.
- Bulk-handler receivals are ~6.2 Mt vs 9.7 Mt this time last year – mostly rain interruptions rather than a poor crop.
Tailwinds
- Yields are generally above average, especially in WA, Qld and northern NSW, helping spread fixed costs.
- Cash prices are softer but not disastrous: port/APW bids are roughly mid-A$330s–350s/t and APW export values around A$370–380/t FOB, depending on grade and port.
- Higher-protein and better-spec wheat still attracts strong spreads over feed, with exporters expecting solid demand for quality milling wheat.
- Fertiliser and some freight costs are well off the 2022 peaks, giving a bit of input-cost relief even though they're not "cheap".
Headwinds
- Global grain is "awash" – record world wheat/corn/soy output is capping prices; futures sit near A$320–330/t Jan-26 and export prices are 6–7% below last year.
- Rabobank flags rising AUD and large carry-in stocks as a drag on Australian basis, plus plenty of export competition.
- Cost base is still fat – labour, diesel, machinery, insurance and interest are all materially higher than pre-COVID, so breakeven for many dryland growers sits not far under current prices (and above them on lighter country).
- Weather/quality risk: showers in parts of Qld/NSW/WA have delayed headers and could hurt quality in the later wheat; some SE areas still have low sub-soil moisture, so late crops remain exposed.
What to do next
If you're finding header/driver bottlenecks or looking for extra harvest work, the AgPages Marketplace is an easy way to match up growers and contractors quickly this season.
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