THE FARMER'S
DIGEST

Your weekly dose of sport, tips, headlines & a good yarn

Thursday 9 April 2026 | Edition #003 | Brought to you by AgPages

THIS WEEK'S JOKE

An agronomist tells a farmer he should switch from wheat to barley this season to save on fertiliser. The farmer says: ‘If the market tanks on barley too, at least I’ll have plenty of beer.’

Farmer cartoon about switching from wheat to barley to save on fertiliser costs

MEME OF THE WEEK

WEEKEND SPORT

Easter weekend and sport go together like red soil and a dry forecast. Four days. Wall-to-wall footy, league, and rugby. The shed radio does not go quiet until Monday arvo.

AFL Round 4

Brisbane host Collingwood at the Gabba tonight. Good Friday brings the SuperClash: North Melbourne vs Carlton at Marvel Stadium, and Adelaide vs Fremantle at Adelaide Oval. Easter Monday closes out the round with Geelong vs Hawthorn at the MCG. Half the western district of Victoria will have that one on while the lamb goes in the oven. The Cats have been flying. The Hawks need a big day from their forwards to spoil the party.

NRL Round 6

Bulldogs take on the Panthers tonight at Accor Stadium. Canterbury have been reasonable early this year, but Penrith will be the measure of where they actually sit. Friday night brings Dragons vs Sea Eagles at WIN Stadium in Wollongong and then the Broncos vs Cowboys at Suncorp. Saturday finishes with Sharks vs Roosters. The Broncos–Cowboys game is worth staying up for if you are across the NRL. North Queensland have looked dangerous through the middle all season.

Super Rugby Pacific Round 9

The big one this weekend is Hurricanes vs Blues in Wellington on Saturday night. Top-of-the-table clash and it should be a good one. Reds hosting the Crusaders in Brisbane on Saturday is also worth a watch. Brumbies travel to Dunedin to face the Highlanders on Friday. Force are in Fiji against the Drua, which is never straightforward. Waratahs have the bye.

PUNT OF THE WEEK: RANDWICK CHAMPIONSHIPS DAY 2

The Championships Day 2 at Royal Randwick on Saturday is one of the great racing days on the calendar. Ten races. Four Group 1s. Here are four races worth a look.

Race 8: Queen Elizabeth Stakes ($5m, 2000m) · approx. 4:00pm AEST

Tip: Autumn Glow. Undefeated mare. She will jump short, probably $1.80 or tighter, so this one is more about the theatre if you are on track. One of the cleanest records in Australian racing right now. Worth watching even if you are not betting on it.

Race 7: Sydney Cup ($2m, 3200m) · approx. 2:45pm AEST

Tip: Mr Monaco at $4.60. Recent Group 3 win at Randwick. Bred to stay, and 3200m at Randwick looks right at this stage of the campaign. Campaldino ($6) worth a small each-way as a saver.

Race 6: Australian Oaks ($1m, 2400m) · approx. 1:45pm AEST

Tip: Profoundly. J-Mac sticks on the filly after an impressive win last weekend. Hit the line strongly at 2000m. Step to 2400m looks right.

Race 4: Fernhill Mile ($500k, 1600m)

Open market. Worth checking conditions Saturday morning before committing. Track and rail position can swing this race.

On tipping sources: 1 from 4 (25%) is close to what most free services hit. The market prices efficiently. For analytical form-based picks on feature days, Betfair Hub and Back a Winner tend to be more useful than straight best-bet lists.

Just a punt guide, not financial advice. AgPages is a farming marketplace, not a bookmaker.

THIS WEEK IN FARMING

Opinion

High Inputs, Strong Fundamentals

By Cameron, Co-founder | AgPages

The fertiliser story is loud right now and it should be. Urea is up 60% from where it was at the start of the year. Diesel is not much better. If you are planning a winter crop, the numbers are painful and they are real.

But there is a version of this story that the headlines are not telling.

Australian agriculture is heading into 2026 with more going for it than most people are giving it credit for. Record production value. Strong barley export demand at a time when barley happens to suit the input cost environment better than wheat or canola. Chinese demand for Australian product holding up in a lot of categories despite everything happening globally. None of that has changed because urea got expensive.

What I find interesting talking to people across the industry is how quickly the conversation goes from ‘inputs are high’ to ‘the season is written off.’ That is the wrong conclusion. High inputs change the economics of what you grow, not whether you grow. The farmers who shift their crop mix early, book the right people now, and manage their cost per hectare properly are the ones who come out of a tough input year ahead of where they started.

There is also a broader point worth making at Easter. This sector has been through genuine hardship. Millennium drought. Fires. Floods. Back to back. The ability to adapt is not some abstract trait farmers are known for. It is a skill that gets tested and built over years of exactly this kind of thing.

The window for winter sowing decisions is opening now. The market fundamentals for barley are solid. Costs are high, yes, but the upside is there if you execute well.

That is the season I would back.

HEADLINES

Fertiliser Crisis Hits as Sowing Season Looms

Urea prices have jumped 60% since the start of the year to around $1,350 per tonne, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran conflict. Diesel is up 88% over the same period. Australia imports nearly 4 million tonnes of urea annually, almost all from the Middle East. With winter crop sowing starting from April, the timing is difficult. Farmers are responding by moving toward barley this season as a lower-input alternative.

Sources: The Conversation / UWA, Grain Central, Sheep Central

Domestic Urea Supply Still Years Away

Strike Energy’s planned WA urea facility never broke ground. The Perdaman plant on the Burrup Peninsula will not be producing until mid-2027. Australia’s largest ammonia plant has also been offline for two months after a power outage. The fertiliser body is now seeking government intervention to ease the shortage.

Source: The Conversation / UWA

Australian Agriculture on Track for Record $101.6 Billion Production Value

ABARES is forecasting a combined agriculture, fisheries and forestry production value of $101.6 billion for 2025–26, a record. Strong export volumes across cattle, grains and cotton are the main drivers. The sector is performing well at the headline level, even with input cost pressure building at the farm gate.

Source: ABARES / Snapshot of Australian Agriculture 2026

BOM: Murray Darling Basin Facing Dry April to June

The Bureau of Meteorology’s April–June outlook puts the Murray Darling Basin at more than 50% chance of unusually low rainfall. For growers trying to get winter crops established, a dry start to the season adds another variable. The BOM updates its outlook monthly, so worth checking in on the May forecast when it lands.

Sources: BOM, Beef Central, Sheep Central

MARKET WRAP

Grain

Barley is the pick this week, supported by export demand on a softer AUD and steady buying from China. Wheat and canola are also higher on geopolitical risk. With growers expected to swing toward barley this season to cut input costs, watch how that planted area shift affects supply dynamics heading into spring.

Livestock

Easter public holidays have hit yardings hard this week. National lamb yardings down 46%, mutton down 43.5%, cattle numbers also reduced. Feeder heifers sitting at 408 cents per kg liveweight on thin volume. Australia’s cattle sector is running at record production levels. 2025 was the highest slaughter since the 1970s, and 2026 is tracking to match it.

Season

BOM is pointing to below-average rainfall across the Murray Darling Basin for April to June. That is the core winter crop establishment window. A dry April with a good break in May is not unusual, but it is worth watching heading into sowing.

One Thing to Watch

Urea availability. The supply chain is under genuine stress right now. If you have not locked in inputs for sowing, get on the phone. Prices are moving and supply is not guaranteed.

Sources: ABARES, MLA Weekly Wrap, Mecardo, Rabobank, BOM

From AgPages

With input costs elevated heading into sowing, getting the right contractors sorted early matters more than usual this season. A reliable seeding crew you can count on, one who shows up and gets it done, is not a small thing when every dollar is tighter.

AgPages connects farmers with vetted ag contractors across Australia. Seeding, spraying, chaser bins, grain cartage. Post a job and get local contractors reaching out to you.

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